Gold and other precious metals are assets that are both
tangible and liquid (i.e. easily traded), unlike real
estate which is tangible but not liquid, or company
shares and bonds which are liquid but not tangible.
Considering its high
density and high value per unit mass, storing and
transporting gold is very easy. Gold also does not
corrode. Historically, it was also very easy to verify
that an offered coin had the density of gold through the
use of Archimedes' principle. Today, however, some
metals are denser than gold yet cheaper. While some
think gold deserves special treatment based on its
cultural value and use as money, others consider gold a
commodity, like copper or lead.
For centuries gold has
been used as a store of value. Gold advocate Bill Bonner
argues in "Empire of Debt" that no other investment has
the wealth preserving power of gold when your frame of
reference extends to thousands of years. Bonner points
out that other assets are dependent upon a certain
government or political climate to retain value,
appreciate, and not be excessively taxed or
nationalized. Gold is largely independent of political
climate (with the exception of laws specifically
confiscating gold as happened during the Franklin
Roosevelt administration).
Fundamental
analysis
Investors may base their investment decisions on
fundamental analysis. These investors analyze the
macroeconomic situation, which includes
international economic indicators, such as GDP
growth rates, inflation, interest rates,
productivity, and energy prices. They would also
analyze the total global gold supply versus demand.
Over 2005 the World Gold Council estimated total
global gold supply to be 3,859 tons and demand to be
3,754 tons, giving a surplus of 105 tons. Others
point out that total mine production is only about
2,500 tons each year, leaving a 1,300 ton deficit
that must be made up by central bank or private
sales.[14]. While gold production is unlikely to
change in the near future, supply and demand due to
private ownership is highly liquid and subject to
rapid changes. This makes gold very different from
almost every other commodity.
Stock analyst Jim Jubak
recently chose gold as one of his "stock" picks for the
next 12 months giving it a price target of $870 per Troy
ounce by July 2008.
Gold versus stocks
The performance of Gold bullion is often compared to
stocks. They are fundamentally different asset classes:
gold is a store of value whereas stocks are a return on
value (i.e. growth plus dividends). Stocks and bonds
perform best in a stable political climate with strong
property rights and little turmoil [Source: Investments
(7th Ed) by Bodie, Kane and Marcus, P.570-571]. Since
1800, stocks have consistently gained value in
comparison to gold due in part to the stability of the
American political system. This appreciation has been
cyclical with long periods of stock outperfomance
followed by long periods of gold outperformance. The Dow
Industrials bottomed out a ratio of 1:1 with gold during
1980 (the end of the 1970s bear market) and proceeded to
post gains throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The ratio
peaked on January 14th, 2000 at a value of 41.3 and has
fallen sharply since. William Anton III wrote in the
2004 issue of Jefferson Coin and Bullion "...downward
movement in the Dow/gold ratio is unlikely to stop
precisely at the mean trendline. The extreme distension
of the the 90s will likely overshoot to the opposite
extreme in the current cycle.
Technical analysis
As with stocks, gold investors may base their investment
decision partly on, or solely on, technical analysis.
Typically this involves analyzing chart patterns, moving
averages and market trends, in order to speculate on the
future price.
Using leverage
Bullish investors may choose to leverage their position
by borrowing money against their existing gold assets
and then purchasing more gold on account with the loaned
funds. In order to keep the cost of debt to a minimum,
these individuals would normally seek a loan in the
currency with the lowest LIBOR, which as of April 2006
was the Japanese yen. This technique is referred to as a
"yen-gold carry trade". Leverage is also an integral
part of buying gold derivatives. Leverage may increase
investment gains but also increases risk, as if the gold
price decreases the investor may be subject to a margin
call.